Ke manaʻo nei ke aupuni Lūkini e hoʻokomo i nā dute e lawe aku i nā mea kanu no ka manawa mua a e hoʻonui i nā quota no kā lākou lako ma waho. Pehea e pili ai kēia i ka lawe ʻana aku i nā mea kanu, i hōʻole ʻia ma muli o nā hoʻopaʻi Komohana, ua noiʻi ʻia e Forbes
Wahi a ka Food and Agriculture Organization o nā Aupuni Hui Pū ʻIa (FAO), ʻo Rūsia i ka makahiki i hala i koho mua ʻia ma ka honua i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā mea kanu nitrogen, ʻo ia ka lua o ka mea kūʻai aku o ka potash fertilizers a me ke kolu - phosphorus. Eia nō naʻe, ma muli o ka hoʻopaʻi ʻana o ke Komohana, ua hoʻemi nui ʻia nā mea hoʻolako mai Russia mai Ianuali a ʻAukake o kēia makahiki, e like me ka ʻikepili hou loa i loaʻa, i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala, nā mea loiloi ma ka International Research Institute for Food Policy (IFPRI) Joseph. ʻO Glauber lāua ʻo David Laborde memo.
Ua pani ʻo Moscow i nā ʻikepili hoʻokuʻu mai Malaki, akā e like me ka IFPRI analysts, ma muli o ka wehe ʻana i ka ʻikepili mai ka lawe ʻana mai i nā ʻāina o nā fertilizers Lūkini, ʻo ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka potassium chloride no nā mahina ʻewalu mua o kēia makahiki ua hoʻemi ʻia e 16.5%, urea (urea, fertilizer i loaʻa 46. % nitrogen) - e 22.8%. Ua emi loa ka lawe ʻana mai o ka ammonia mai Rūsia - e 63%, ʻo ke kumu ka pani ʻana o ka pipeline ʻo Togliatti-Odessa ammonia. I ka manawa like, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka diammonium phosphate ma mua o ka nui o nā mahina ʻewalu mua o 2021 ma mua o 8%.
ʻOiai ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana aku, hoʻolālā ke aupuni e hoʻolauna i nā dute hoʻopuka i nā mea kanu mai Ianuali 1. ʻO ka mea nui paha, e hoʻolauna ʻia lākou e Russia unilaterally a no ʻeono mahina, ʻoiai no ka manawa lōʻihi e pono ai e hui pū me nā lālā ʻē aʻe o ka Eurasian. Hui Pūʻali Waiwai (EAEU).
Ma ʻOkakopa, ua hoʻolaha ke Kuhina Waiwai ʻo Anton Siluanov e hoʻohana ʻia nā dute e lawe aku inā ʻoi aku ke kumukūʻai o ka honua no ka phosphorus a me ka nitrogen fertilizers ma mua o $500 no ke tona, a no ka potash fertilizers - $400 no ke tona. A i Nowemapa, ua ʻōlelo ke Kuhina ʻOihana a me Trade Denis Manturov, ʻo 23.5% ka uku hoʻoiho ma nā ʻano mea kanu āpau inā ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kumukūʻai o ka honua i $ 450 no ka ton, a ua hoʻomākaukau mua ʻia ka hoʻoholo hoʻoholo.
E uku ʻia nā dute e nā mea hana a pau
Wahi a Phosagro, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ke kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai awelika no nā mea kanu mineral i ka hapaha ʻekolu o 2022 ma mua o nā kumukūʻai no ka manawa like ma 2021. ʻO ke kumukūʻai awelika o ka urea ma nā awa o ke Kai Baltic he $ 538 no ka ton me $ 442 i ka makahiki i hala. no ammophos (ammonium phosphate, nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer, he 10-12% nitrogen a me 44-52% phosphorus) - $777 no ke tona ma ke kumu like me $695, no ka potassium chloride (potassium fertilizer me 58-60% potassium oxide) — $694 kūʻē i $277.
"Ua emi mālie nā kumukūʻai no ka phosphorus-me loko a me ka potash fertilizers no ka mea kiʻekiʻe loa lākou i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā kumukūʻai no nā huahana mahiʻai," wahi a ka hui. "ʻO nā kumukūʻai o nā fertilizers nitrogen, me ka urea, ua ukali i ka piʻi nui ʻana, me ka hoʻomau ʻana o ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai ikehu, a ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka hana ʻana o kēia mau ʻano mea kanu, ʻoi aku hoʻi ma ʻEulopa."
Ma nā kumukūʻai o kēia manawa, hiki ke kau ʻia ke dute ma nā ʻano mea kanu āpau, wahi a Dmitry Puchkarev, he loea i ka mākeke kūʻai o BCS World of Investments.
"I kēia manawa nā kumukūʻai kūʻai no ka potassium chloride ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika ma kahi o $ 850-855 no ka ton, no ka urea - $ 820-825, diammonium phosphate (nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer me 18% nitrogen a me 46% phosphorus) - $ 820-830 no ke tona. Hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā kumukūʻai o ke kauwela-kauwela 2022, i ka wā i hōʻea ai lākou i nā kiʻekiʻe o nā makahiki he nui, ke emi nei nā kumukūʻai, "wahi a ka loea kūʻokoʻa ʻo Leonid Khazanov. "Akā naʻe, ʻaʻole i hiki ke kumukūʻai i ke kiʻekiʻe o Nowemapa 2021, ʻoiai ke kokoke nei ke kumukūʻai o ka urea i nā hōʻailona o kēlā manawa." ʻO nā kumukūʻai kūʻai aku ma nā awa Lūkini he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā kumukūʻai kūʻai ma ke Komohana, no ka mea ʻaʻole lākou i hoʻokomo i ke kumukūʻai o nā kumukūʻai kaʻa a me ka palena o nā mea kālepa ma waena o nā mea hana a me nā mea kūʻai aku.
"ʻAʻole hiki ke kapa ʻia ke kumukūʻai ʻoki ʻia he $450 no ka ton," wahi a Alexey Kalachev, kahi mea loiloi ma Finam. "ʻO ka mea nui paha, ʻo ia ka hopena o nā kuʻikahi a me ka ʻae ʻana." Wahi a Kalachev, ʻoiai ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai fertilizer ma 20-30% mai nā kumu kiʻekiʻe o ka pūnāwai, e mau nō ke kiʻekiʻe - ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma ka hāʻule o 2021 wale nō, a ma mua o ka hapa nui o ka manawa ua ʻike haʻahaʻa.
I nā makahiki i hala aku nei, ua piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai momona ma luna o $450 no ke tona wale nō ma 2007-2008 a ma 2010-2012, wahi a Kalachev. No laila, ʻōlelo ʻo ia, ʻo ke dute ma luna o ke kumu kūʻai i ʻoki ʻia, e like me ka hoʻolālā o ke aupuni, e hoʻihoʻi i ka waihona kālā i ka "windfall" o nā mea hana fertilizer mai kahi conjuncture kūleʻa. ʻO ke kumu kūʻai i ʻoki ʻia e pale i nā mea hana mai ke kaumaha kālā nui inā loli ke kūlana mākeke a hāʻule nā kumukūʻai i nā pae awelika o nā makahiki i hala.
ʻO nā poho o nā mea hana ma hope o ka hoʻokomoʻana i nā dute e hoʻokuʻu aku e hilinaʻi waleʻia ma nā kumukūʻai, akā, ma ka mahele o nā hoʻokuʻu aku i kā lākou kālā, wahi a Kalachev. I kēia manawa ʻaʻole hōʻike nā ʻoihana i ka ʻāina o ke kūʻai aku. I nā makahiki i hala aku nei, ua lawe mai nā mea kūʻai aku o Phosagro ma kahi o 70% o ka loaʻa kālā. Inā ʻae ʻia kahi dute o 23.5% ma ke kumukūʻai ma luna o $ 450 no ka ton, a laila ʻoiai e mālama ana i nā kumukūʻai o kēia manawa, e uku ke dute i ka hui ma kahi o 6% o ka loaʻa kālā, ua manaʻo ka loea.
ʻAʻole kākau ka Ministry of Industry a me Trade i nā kumukūʻai o ke kumu e lawe ʻia ma ke ʻano he benchmark, no ka mea, ʻokoʻa nā kumukūʻai ma nā kumu like ʻole, wahi a Oksana Lukicheva, kahi mea loiloi ma nā mākeke kūʻai ma Otkritie Investments. Pono nā mea hana a pau e uku i nā dute, akā ʻo ka mea mua o ka poʻe i kū i ka kiʻekiʻe - Phosagro, Akron, Eurochem. ʻO Uralchem, ka mea hana nui o ka potash fertilizers, e uku liʻiliʻi no ka mea ua hāʻule nā mea kūʻai aku.
ʻO nā hana, e like me Lukicheva, hiki ke hōʻemi i ka loaʻa kālā o nā mea kūʻai aku, akā ʻaʻole ia e hoʻopilikia i nā hoʻoiho. "Ua ʻae ʻia ka uku o ka dute o 23.5% i nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o kēia manawa no nā mea kanu," i manaʻoʻiʻo ai ka mea loiloi. "E mau paha nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku i ka pae o ka makahiki i hala a i ʻole ke ulu aʻe inā e hoʻemi ʻia nā hoʻopaʻi."
ʻO ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ke dute hiki ke alakaʻi i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku mai Rūsia inā e hoʻomau ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai o nā mineral fertilizers ma ka mākeke honua, manaʻoʻo Khazanov. Me ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā hanana, hoʻopaʻapaʻa ka mea loiloi, e emi ana ka waiwai o nā mea hana, e koi ʻia e hōʻemi i nā lako a hoʻoponopono hou i nā papahana hoʻopukapuka. "Akā, ma hope o kekahi manawa, e alakaʻi kēia i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai no nā mea kanu mineral ma waho ma muli o kā lākou hemahema ma ka mākeke honua, e like me ia i ka pūnāwai-kauwela o 2022, a me nā hui kemika kūloko, ua nalowale i ka tonnage, hiki iā ʻoe ke hopu i ke kālā, "manaʻoʻiʻo ʻo Khazanov.
ʻAʻole e kaupalena nā kuʻi i ka lawe ʻana aku
ʻAʻole nā kuleana wale nō ke ala e hoʻoponopono ai i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā mea kanu Lūkini ma waho. Ua hoʻoholo ke aupuni e hoʻolōʻihi i nā quotas no ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā mea kanu mai Ianuali 1 a hiki i Mei 31, 2023. Ua paʻi ʻia ka ʻōlelo hoʻoholo pili ma ka puka o ka draft normative legal acts. I loko o ia mea, ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia ka nui o nā quotas no ka lawe ʻana aku ma waho o ka EAEU ma 7,013 miliona tons no nā fertilizers nitrogen a me 4,907 miliona tons no nā fertilizers paʻakikī.
He emi kēia ma mua. Mai Iulai 1 a hiki i Dekemaba 31, 2022, hoʻokō ʻia nā quota no nā fertilizers nitrogen - 8.3 miliona tons, no nā mea paʻakikī i loaʻa i ʻelua a ʻekolu mau meaʻai (nitrogen, phosphorus a me ka potassium) - 5.9 miliona tons. Ua hoʻolaha ka Ministry of Industry and Trade i ka lā 21 Nowemapa ua hoʻoholo ʻo ia e hoʻonui i ka quota hou no ka lawe ʻana aku i kekahi ʻano o nā mea kanu nitrogen: quota e hoʻonui ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka urea e 400,000 tons, ammonium nitrate - e 200,000 tons, ka hui ʻana o ka urea-ammonia e 150,000 tons. Ua hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻia ka protocol e pili ana e ka Hope Kuhina Nui Andrei Belousov. Eia nō naʻe, ʻoiai ma hope o ka hoʻonui ʻana i kēia quota e 0.75 miliona tons i 7.763 miliona tons, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka quota o kēia manawa no ka lawe ʻana aku i nā mea kanu nitrogen o 8.3 miliona mau.
Ua helu ʻia ka nui o nā quotas ma muli o ka nui o ka hana, nā lako i nā mahiʻai Lūkini a me nā ʻoihana ʻoihana, e like me ka wehewehe ʻana i loaʻa e Forbes mai ka Ministry of Industry and Trade. Wahi a ka leka, ʻo ka hōʻano hou o ka palapala i ʻae ʻia e ka Ministry of Agriculture o Rūsia a i ʻae ʻia e ka Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia e hāʻawi i nā hoʻopuka i nā mahiʻai Lūkini ma Ianuali-Mei 2023 e 10% ma luna o ka pae o ka like. i ka makahiki i hala aku nei, he hopena ia i ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka huina o nā hoʻokuʻu ʻia.
ʻO ka liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi o nā quota, i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā wā quota mua, ma muli o ka manawa, wahi a ka wehewehe. Ma mua, ua hoʻokomo ʻia nā quota no nā mahina ʻeono - mai Dekemaba 1, 2021 a i Mei 31, 2022 a mai Iulai 1, 2022 a hiki i Dekemaba 31, 2022. ʻO ka manawa i manaʻo ʻia e ka hoʻoholo papahana e uhi wale i ʻelima mau mahina - mai Ianuali 1 a Mei 31, 2023. "E hoʻoholo ʻia nā helu hope loa o nā quota i ka wā o ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana o ka hoʻoholo hoʻoholo me nā mana hoʻokō federal i makemake ʻia a ʻae ʻia ma ka hālāwai o ka subcommittee no ka uku dute a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻole o ka uku, nā hana pale i ke kālepa haole o ke Komisina Aupuni. no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ka hoʻohui ʻana," i kākau ai ka Ministry of Industry and Trade.
"Ma keʻano laulā, ua hoʻokomo ʻia nā quota hoʻokuʻu aku i ka nui o ka liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka awelika o ka nui o ka lawe ʻana aku no nā wā ma mua," wahi a Alexey Kalachev, kahi mea loiloi ma Finam. "Hoʻomalu lākou i ka mākeke kūloko mai ka ulu ʻana o ka nui o nā mea kūʻai aku, akā ʻaʻole lākou e hōʻemi i ka hoʻoiho maoli ʻana o nā ʻoihana."
ʻO ka hoʻokumu ʻana i nā quotas e hoʻoponopono wale i ka lakio ma waena o ke kūʻai ʻana i nā mea kanu mineral ma ka mākeke kūloko o Rūsia a ma waho, inā pono, hiki ke hoʻonui ʻia, e like me ia i kēia makahiki, wahi a Khazanov. "I kēlā me kēia hihia, e hoʻomau ka mākeke Lūkini i ke kī no kā mākou mea hana, a ma 2023 hiki ke hoʻonui i kona hiki ma muli o ke kākoʻo mau ʻana o ka mokuʻāina no ka mahiʻai," wahi a ka loea.
Wahi a ka Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, mai Nowemapa 16, 2022, ua hāʻawi nā mea hana Lūkini o nā mea kanu mineral i ka 108% o ka noi i hoʻolālā ʻia o nā mea mahiʻai Lūkini, i manaʻo ʻia i kēia makahiki he 4.85 miliona tons.
Kumu: https://www.forbes.ru