Jose A. Egea1*, Manuel Caro2, Jesús García-Brunton2, Iesu Gambín 3, José Egea 1 a me David Ruiz 1*
- 1Pūʻulu Hoʻoulu Huaʻai, Keʻena o ka Hoʻoulu Mea kanu, CEBAS-CSIC, Murcia, Sepania
- 2Murcia Institute of Agri-Food Research and Development, Murcia, Sepania
- 3Kula ʻOihana ENAE, Kulanui o Murcia, Murcia, Sepania
He mea koʻikoʻi koʻikoʻi ka hana ʻana i nā hua pōhaku ma Sepania. ʻO nā wahi mahi ʻai no kēia mau ʻano hua (ʻo ia hoʻi, ka peach, ka apricot, ka plum, a me ka cherry ʻono) uhi ākea a me nā ʻano like ʻole o ka ʻāina. Ke hana nei ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana o nā mahana awelika me ka ikaika kūikawā ma kekahi mau wahi e like me ka Mediterranean. ʻO kēia mau hoʻololi ke alakaʻi i ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu i hōʻiliʻili ʻia, hiki ke loaʻa i kahi hopena nui i ka phenology o ʻO Prunus ʻano like me nā hua pōhaku ma muli o, no ka laʻana, paʻakikī i ka uhi ʻana i nā koi ʻoluʻolu e wāwahi i ka endodormancy, ka hiki ʻana mai o nā hanana hau hope, a i ʻole nā wela wela kiʻekiʻe mua. Hiki i kēia mau mea āpau ke hoʻopilikia koʻikoʻi i ka hana hua a me ka maikaʻi a no laila e hoʻonāukiuki i nā hopena maikaʻi ʻole mai ka ʻike socio-economic i nā wahi incumbent. No laila, ʻo ka ʻike ʻana i nā wahi mahiʻai i kēia manawa e pili ana i nā ʻano agroclimatic (e laʻa, ke anuanu a me ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ka wela a me nā manawa o ka hau a me nā hanana wela maʻamau), e pili ana i ka ʻikepili mai 270 mau kikowaena no nā makahiki he 20 i hala. hana i kahi kiʻi ʻike o ke kūlana o kēia manawa. Ma waho aʻe o kēia, ʻike ʻia nā hoʻohālikelike ʻana i ka wā e hiki mai ana mai nā ʻano hoʻohālike ʻano honua like ʻole (i kiʻi ʻia mai ka Meteorological State Agency of Spain—AEMET) a hiki i 2065 no ʻelua mau hiʻohiʻona Representative Concentration Pathway (ʻo ia hoʻi, RCP4.5 a me RCP8.5). Me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke kūlana o kēia manawa ma ke ʻano he kumu a me ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i nā hiʻohiʻona o ka wā e hiki mai ana, hiki ke ʻike ʻia ka ʻike e pili ana i ke kūpono kūpono o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā ʻano ʻano like ʻole i nā wahi ulu like ʻole. Hiki i kēia ʻike ke kumu o kahi mea kōkua hoʻoholo e kōkua i nā mea kuleana like ʻole e lawe i nā hoʻoholo maikaʻi loa e pili ana i nā hua pōhaku o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana a i ʻole ka mahi ʻai ʻana i nā ʻano ʻano ʻano maʻamau ma Sepania.
Introduction
ʻO Sepania kekahi o nā mea hana nui o ka honua i nā hua pōhaku (ʻo ia hoʻi, ka peach, apricot, plum, a me ka cherry momona) me ka awelika o ka hana makahiki ma kahi o 2 miliona mau tona. He kuleana koʻikoʻi ko ka mahi ʻana i kēia mau huaʻai ma ka ʻāina, e uhi ana ma kahi o 140,260 ha (FAOSTAT, 2019). ʻO nā wahi ulu nui ma Sepania no kēia mau cultivars aia ma nā wahi me nā ʻano agroclimatic like ʻole: mai nā wahi mahana e like me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir a me kahi hapa nui o ka ʻāina Mediterranean a hiki i nā wahi anuanu e like me Extremadura akau, awāwa Ebro, a me kekahi mau wahi o loko o ka ʻāina Mediterranean. (e nana Hōʻike 1). No ka mea, pono kēia mau mea kanu i ka hoʻoilo hoʻoilo e wāwahi i ka endodormancy e pale i nā pilikia hana (ʻO Atkinson et al., 2013)Campoy et al., 2011b; Luedeling et al., 2011; Luedeling, 2012; ʻO Julian et al., 2007; Guo et al., 2015; 2019; Chmielewski et al., 2018), a (iv) koho i nā hana mahiʻai maikaʻi loa a me nā ʻenehana e hoʻēmi i ka hopena o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau (Campoy et al., 2010; Mahmood et al., 2018).
Pono ke anu a me ka wela (Fadón et al., 2020b) a i ʻole ka pae o ka pōʻino hau (ʻO Miranda et al., 2005) o nā ʻano mea kanu i kēia manawa, hiki ke hoʻohui ʻia me nā ana agroclimatic ma nā wahi like ʻole e kūkulu i nā mea hana hoʻoholo e kōkua i nā mea hana a me nā mea kuleana ʻē aʻe e hoʻolālā i ka hana kūpono a me nā kulekele hoʻokele waiwai no ka manawa waena a lōʻihi. Loaʻa nā mea hana hoʻohālike e hoʻoponopono i nā ʻano nui o ke aniau a me ka phenological i lilo i kumu no ke kūkulu ʻana i nā mea hana hoʻoholo i ʻōlelo ʻia ma luna (Luedeling, 2019; Luedeling et al., 2021; ʻO Miranda et al., 2021). Hōʻike ʻia ka ʻike ʻana o ke aniau ma ke kai Mediterranean e hiki ke koʻikoʻi ka hopena o ka hoʻomehana honua ma kēia wahi (ʻO Giorgi lāua ʻo Lionello, 2008; MedECC, 2020; IPCC, 2021), no laila, he mea koʻikoʻi nā hana kakali e pale aku i nā pilikia o ka wā e hiki mai ana, hiki ke hoʻopilikia nui i ka hoʻokele waiwai o kekahi mau wahi e like me nā mea i hōʻike ʻia ma kēia haʻawina (ʻO Olesen lāua ʻo Bindi, 2002; Benmoussa et al., 2018).
Ua hoʻoholo nā haʻawina noiʻi like ʻole i ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole o ka hoʻomehana honua i ka hana ʻana i nā huaʻai a me nā nati ma nā wahi like ʻole o ka honua. ʻO nā kumu nui e pili ana i ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu o ka hoʻoilo ʻoiai ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o nā pilikia hau ma muli o ka holomua i manaʻo ʻia i ka ulu ʻana a me ka pua ʻana e noʻonoʻo ʻia i kekahi mau haʻawina. No ka laʻana, ʻo Fernandez et al. Ua wānana ʻia ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu o ka hoʻoilo e pono ai no ka hoʻohua ʻana i nā huaʻai ma Chile, me nā hopena maikaʻi ʻole i manaʻo ʻia ma nā wahi ʻākau o ka ʻāina. I ka manawa like, ua kuhi lākou i nā hōʻemi nui o ka hiki ke hau i ka manawa kūpono loa o ka budburst no nā kumu lāʻau deciduous no nā wahi i manaʻo ʻia (Fernandez et al., 2020); Lorite et al. ua kālailai ʻia nā ʻano like ʻole e like me ka nele o ka hoʻoilo, ka pilikia o ka hau, a me nā kūlana mahana i ka wā e pua ana i ka Iberian Peninsula no kekahi mau mea kanu ʻalemona e hui pū ana i nā ʻike aniani a me nā ʻike phenological. Ua ʻike lākou, ma ke ʻano maʻamau (a ma muli o ka mea kanu i manaʻo ʻia), (i) ʻoi aku ka ʻike ʻana o ka nele o ka hoʻoilo ma ke kahakai Mediterranean a me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir, (ii) ʻoi aku ka ikaika o nā kūlana mahana i ka wā o ka pua. ʻO Plateau a me Ebro Valley, a (iii) e hoʻemi ʻia ka pilikia o ka hau i nā wahi kūikawā o ka Northern Plateau a me Northern Hilly Areas (Lorite et al., 2020). ʻO Benmoussa et al. Ua manaʻo ʻia ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu o ka hoʻoilo i ka wā e hiki mai ana ma Tunisia e hiki ke hoʻopilikia nui i ka hana ʻana o kekahi mau huaʻai a me nā nati. No ka laʻana, no ka hiʻohiʻona pessimistic, ʻo nā ʻalemona cultivars haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa hiki ke ola. Ma nā hiʻohiʻona ʻē aʻe, hiki ke ola kekahi mau pistachios a me nā mea kanu peach a hiki i ka wā lōʻihi no ka ʻaoʻao komohana ʻĀkau o ka ʻāina (Benmoussa et al., 2020); Ua noʻonoʻo ʻo Fraga lāua ʻo Santos i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ka wela a me ka hopena i ka hana ʻana i nā hua like ʻole ma Pokukala. Ua manaʻo lākou i ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻoilo i ka hoʻoilo e hoʻopōʻino nui ʻia i nā wahi i loko o ka ʻāina. E ʻike nui ʻia nā wahi ulu ʻāpala ʻākau i ka hōʻemi ʻana i ke anuanu. Ua kuhi pū nā mea kākau i ka piʻi ʻana o ka wela, me ka hopena kiʻekiʻe ma nā wahi hema a me nā kahakai o ka ʻāina. Ua hōʻike lākou e hiki i kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo ke hoʻonui i ka pōʻino o ka hau ma muli o ka holomua o nā pae phenological (Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; ʻO Fraga lāua ʻo Santos, 2021) hoʻohālikelike i ke kūlana o kēia manawa o nā wahi hana o kekahi mau huaʻai maʻemaʻe ma Sepania me nā hiʻohiʻona hoʻololi ea e pili ana i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i ke anuanu. Ua wānana lākou i nā poho nui o ke anuanu ma kekahi mau wahi (e laʻa, Hema-hikina a i ʻole ʻāpana Gualdalquivir) i ka wā e hiki mai ana. No ka wā e hiki mai ana (> 2070), ua ʻōlelo kēia mau mea kākau i ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i nā wahi e ulu nei i kēia manawa, hiki ke hoʻopilikia nui ʻia nā mea kanu plum, almond, a me ka ʻaʻa ʻole o ke anuanu (Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021).
Ma kēia noiʻi ʻana, ua loiloi mākou i nā ʻano agroclimatic nui e pili ana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā hua pōhaku ma nā wahi like ʻole i loko o Sepania, me nā wahi i hana ʻia ai nā huaʻai pōhaku koʻikoʻi me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻikepili mai 270 mau kikowaena ʻāina i ka manawa 2000–2020. Hoʻopili pū ʻia kēia me nā hoʻolālā wela e hiki mai ana e hoʻohālikelike i ka ulu ʻana o ke anuanu a me ka hoʻoulu ʻana o ka wela a me nā mea e hiki mai ana o ka hau a me nā hanana wela kūlohelohe mua e hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ke kūlana o kēia manawa. Hiki ke kōkua nui kēia ʻike no ka lawe ʻana i nā hoʻoholo maikaʻi loa e pili ana i ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana i nā kīhāpai hou, ka hoʻoneʻe ʻana i nā mea kanu o kēia manawa, a i ʻole ke koho ʻana i nā mea kanu maikaʻi loa e loaʻa ai ka waiwai i ka wā lōʻihi.
ʻO ka hāʻawi nui o kēia haʻawina ʻo ia kā mākou loiloi i ka manawa like i nā ʻano like ʻole agroclimatic e pili ana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā hua pōhaku. ʻAʻole wale ka hōʻiliʻili hau e hoʻokō i nā CR e like me ka hana ʻana i ka haʻawina e ʻO Rodríguez et al. (2019, 2021) akā, ʻo ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ka wela no ka pua kūpono, nā pilikia hau, a me kahi ʻano like ʻole i helu ʻia i loko o ka palapala: ʻo ka hiki ke loaʻa nā hanana wela kūlohelohe i ka hoʻoilo e hiki ke hoʻonui i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka endodormancy me ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole i ka hoʻohua ʻana o ka hua, ka maikaʻi, a me ka hua, e like me ia. ʻike ʻia ma nā wahi mahana i nā makahiki i hala. Ua hoʻohana mākou i ka ʻikepili mai kahi pūnaewele paʻa loa o nā keʻena aniani e hāʻawi ana i nā ana kūpono no ke kūlana o kēia manawa. Ua noʻonoʻo mākou i nā wahi hana o kēia manawa no ka mea e lawe ʻia nā hoʻoholo e pili ana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka hoʻomehana ʻana ma ia mau wahi, kahi i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ai nā ʻenehana kūpono a me ka ʻike. Ma ia mau wahi, ʻo ka hoʻoneʻe ʻana i nā mea kanu e hoʻopuka i nā hopena socio-economic maikaʻi ʻole a me ka depopulation. Eia kekahi, no ka hōʻike ʻana i ke kūlana o kēia manawa, ua hoʻohana mākou i nā wela o kēlā me kēia hola ma mua o nā mea i manaʻo ʻia, e hāʻawi i ka pololei i nā hopena i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā haʻawina ʻē aʻe kahi e hoʻopili ʻia ai nā mahana o kēlā me kēia lā. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻonā i hoʻohana ʻia (∼5 km) ma mua o nā haʻawina like ʻē aʻe ma Sepania (Rodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; Lorite et al., 2020) a kōkua i ka hoʻoholo ʻana ma kahi pae kūloko.
Nā Pono a me nā Una
ʻIkepili Klima a me nā ʻano hoʻololi Agroclimatic
ʻO ka ʻikepili climatic mai 340 mau kikowaena e kū nei i nā hua pōhaku nui e hana ana i nā wahi ma Sepania (e ʻike i Hōʻike 1) ua hoʻohana ʻia e loiloi i nā metric agroclimatic. Loaʻa ka ʻikepili i nā ʻano hoʻololi climatic nui, me ka mean, ka palena kiʻekiʻe, a me ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa (°C), ka haʻahaʻa pili (%), ka ua (mm), ka evapotranspiration (ETo, mm), a me ka pāhawewe lā (W/m).2). Loaʻa nā moʻolelo piha ʻole a me nā pilikia ma kekahi o nā kikowaena i manaʻo ʻia. Ma hope o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke kānāwai Sepania (UNE 500540, 2004), ua koho ʻia kahi helu hope o 270 mau kikowaena. Ua piha ka ʻikepili wela o kēlā me kēia hola koe wale nō nā hola kaʻawale e pili ana i nā hanana mālama ʻana ʻaʻole i hoʻopiha ʻia no ka mea aia i loko o ka hapa haʻahaʻa o ka huina. Ua hoʻohana ʻia nā mahana wela o kēlā me kēia hola i ka manawa 2000–2020 no ka helu ʻana i nā ʻano hoʻololi agroclimatic nui, me ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke anuanu a me ka wela a me nā mea hiki ke hoʻopōʻino i ka hau a me nā hanana wela kūlohelohe i ka hoʻoilo. ʻOkoʻa ka helu o nā makahiki piha i kēlā me kēia kikowaena: mai 5 a 21 mau makahiki (median = 20) ma muli o ke kikowaena.
Ua helu ʻia ka hōʻiliʻili hau no kēlā me kēia kau mai ka lā 1 o Nowemapa a hiki i ka lā 28 o Pepeluali o ka makahiki e hiki mai ana. Utah (Richardson et al., 1974) a me Dynamic (Fishman et al., 1987) ua hoʻohana ʻia nā hiʻohiʻona e hana i kēia helu. Ua helu ʻia ka hōʻiliʻili wela no kēlā me kēia kau mai ka lā 1 o Ianuali a hiki i ka lā 8 o ʻApelila (ma kahi o 14 pule) me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka Richardson (Richardson et al., 1974) a me Anderson (Anderson et al., 1986) nā hiʻohiʻona, e hāʻawi ana i nā hopena i ka ulu ʻana o nā hola degere (GDHs). Ua helu ʻia nā hanana hau a me nā hanana wela maʻamau i kēlā me kēia pule penei: no kēlā me kēia pule, hiki mai kahi hanana hau inā hāʻule ka mahana ma lalo o -1°C i loko o ʻekolu mau hola. A laila, ua wehewehe ʻia ka likelika o ka hiki ʻana o nā hanana hau i loko o kekahi pule e like me ka helu o nā manawa i loaʻa i hoʻokahi hanana hau ma ka liʻiliʻi o hoʻokahi pule i ka wā aʻo i puʻunaue ʻia me ka helu o nā makahiki i manaʻo ʻia. Pēlā nō, hiki mai kekahi hanana wela ʻino inā piʻi ka mahana ma luna o 25°C no ʻekolu mau hola. A laila, helu ʻia ke ʻano o ka hiki ʻana mai o nā hanana wela kūlohelohe e like me ka wehewehe ʻana no nā hanana hau. Hoʻomaka ka pule 1 i ka lā 1 o Ianuali. No nā hanana hau, ua manaʻo ʻia nā pule mai ka 2 a hiki i ka 10 he mau pule pōʻino. ʻO nā pule mua ma ka laulā (ʻo ia hoʻi, ka pule 2 a hiki i ka pule 5-6) ʻo ia nā wiki pōʻino loa ma nā wahi mehana, ʻoiai ʻo ke koena (ʻo ia hoʻi, nā pule 5-6 a i ka pule 10) ʻo ia nā mea koʻikoʻi ma nā wahi anuanu. No nā hanana wela kūpono ʻole, ʻo ka manawa i noʻonoʻo ʻia mai ka pule 49 o ka makahiki i hala (e hoʻomaka ana o Dekemaba) a i ka 8 (hopena o Pepeluali) i hiki ai i kēia mau hanana ke hoʻoikaika i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka dormancy e pili ana i nā pilikia hana hope.
Nā Kūlana e hiki mai ana
E pili ana i nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana, ua hoʻohana ʻia nā kuhi wela i helu ʻia e ka Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET). Ke hana nei ʻo AEMET i nā makahiki i hala iho nei i kahi papa kuhikuhi i hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻia i ka hoʻololi ʻana o ke aniau ma luna o Sepania a i ʻole e hoʻohana ana i nā ʻenehana hoʻohaʻahaʻa helu i nā huahana o nā kumu hoʻohālike honua (GCMs) a i ʻole ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻike i hana ʻia e nā ʻenehana hoʻohaʻahaʻa dynamical ma o nā papahana ʻEulopa a i ʻole nā hana hoʻolālā honua. e like me PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, a me EURO-CORDEX (Amblar-Francés et al., 2018). Ma kēia noiʻi ʻana, ua hoʻohana mākou i nā mahana i manaʻo ʻia i kēlā me kēia lā (ʻo ia hoʻi, ka nui a me ka liʻiliʻi) me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa helu helu ma muli o nā ʻupena neural artificial. Ua loiloi ʻia kēia ma ke ʻano he ala kūpono no ka hoʻopuka ʻana i nā kuhi ʻana i ke aniau i nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana ma Sepania aʻo ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā kumu hoʻohālike GCMs (Hernanz et al., 2022a,b) ma luna o kahi mākia o 5 km hoʻonā. Ua noʻonoʻo ʻia ʻelua mau hiʻohiʻona kino, ʻo ia hoʻi, 2025–2045 (i hōʻike ʻia e 2035) a me 2045–2065 (i hōʻike ʻia e 2055) e hāʻawi i nā hopena no ka wā pōkole a me ka manawa waena. Ua noʻonoʻo ʻia ʻelua mau ala koʻikoʻi, ʻo ia hoʻi, RCP4.5 a me RCP8.5 (van Vuuren et al., 2011). ʻO ka ʻike, he ʻumikūmākahi GCM i hoʻohana ʻia i kēia haʻawina (1 Pūnaewele). Ua hōʻike ʻia nā hopena me kahi Kanakaʻole ʻano hana (Semenov a me Stratonovitch, 2010; Wallach et al., 2018) kahi i helu ʻia e nā kumu hoʻohālike a pau i hoʻohana ʻia i nā ʻanuʻu aʻe. Ua hoʻohālikelike ʻia nā mahana o kēlā me kēia hola e helu ai i nā index agroclimatic mai kēlā me kēia lā me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka pūʻolo chillR (Luedeling, 2019).
1 Pūnaewele
NĀ KULA 1. Ka papa inoa o nā kumu hoʻohālike ea honua i hoʻohana ʻia ma kēia haʻawina.
No ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā ʻano hoʻololi agroclimatic i nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana, ua hoʻohālikelike ʻia nā wahi maoli o nā kikowaena aniau me ko lākou mau wahi kokoke loa mai ka pā. ʻO 3.87, 0.26, a me 2.14 km ka lōʻihi loa, ka palena liʻiliʻi, a me ka mean mamao mai nā kikowaena aniau a hiki i ko lākou mau wahi kokoke loa. Ma nā hihia a pau (nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana), ua helu ʻia kahi ʻāpana i hoʻopili ʻia a puni nā kikowaena aniau i manaʻo ʻia (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻaʻole i ʻoi aku ma mua o 50 km mai ke kahua hoʻokele kokoke loa) i helu ʻia me ke ʻano ke kaupaona ʻana o ka mamao.
Results
ʻO ka Huʻihuʻi
E like me ka mea i kuhikuhi ʻia ma luna, ua hoʻohana ʻia ʻelua mau hiʻohiʻona no ka helu ʻana i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke anuanu, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻo Utah (ma nā ʻāpana hau) a me ka model Dynamic (ma nā ʻāpana). I ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā kumu waiwai o ka huina hau i hōʻiliʻili ʻia i loko o ka manawa holoʻokoʻa no nā kikowaena āpau, ua ʻike ʻia kahi pilina kiʻekiʻe loa ma waena o nā kuhikuhi ʻelua (R2 = 0.95, Ke Kahua 1). No laila, hōʻike ʻia nā hopena me ka hoʻohana ʻana i hoʻokahi o lākou (mau ʻāpana). Hōʻike 2 hōʻike i nā ʻano kikoʻī o nā ʻāpana anuanu ma nā manawa like ʻole i manaʻo ʻia. Ma ke kūlana i kēia manawa, hiki iā mākou ke ʻike aia kekahi mau wahi ʻāina me ka hōʻiliʻili kiʻekiʻe o ke anuanu (≥75 mau ʻāpana), e like me ke awāwa ʻo Ebro, ʻĀkau Extremadura, a me kekahi mau wahi i loko o ke Kaiwaenahonua. Ma ke Kaiwaenahonua a me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir wale nō, loaʻa nā wahi mehana me ka hōʻiliʻili hau ma lalo o 60 mau ʻāpana (ʻoiai ma lalo o 50 i kekahi mau wahi kaʻawale). Hōʻike nā hiʻohiʻona o ka wā e hiki mai ana ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu i hōʻiliʻili ʻia ma nā wahi mahana, ma ka ʻĀkau Extremadura a me kekahi mau wahi o loko o ke Kaiwaenahonua. ʻO ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu i hōʻiliʻili ʻia ma ke awāwa ʻo Ebro e hana ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao hikina o kēlā wahi, aʻo ka loko e hōʻiliʻili nui i ke anuanu hoʻoilo ʻoiai i ka hiʻohiʻona pessimistic loa (e laʻa, 2055_RCP8.5). ʻOi aku ka ikaika o nā hopena o ka hoʻomehana honua i ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu ma ka hiʻohiʻona 2055_RCP8.5 e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia. Nā Papa Kūkākūkā 1-4 hōʻike i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke anuanu ma ka manawa i noʻonoʻo ʻia (1 Nowemapa a i ka hopena o Pepeluali) ma nā ʻāpana no nā wahi a me nā hiʻohiʻona i kēlā me kēia hiʻohiʻona i manaʻo ʻia e hiki mai ana. Hōʻike ʻia ka waiwai nui o nā mea hoʻopuka o nā kumu hoʻohālike he ʻumikūmākahi, a me ke anuanu i hōʻiliʻili ʻia no ka manawa 2000–2020 no nā kumu hoʻohālikelike.
Hōʻike 2
MAKAHI 2. ʻO ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i nā wahi hana pōhaku nui ma Sepania no ke kūlana o kēia manawa (ma kahi o 2000–2020), ʻelua mau manawa manawa (2025–2045 a me 2045–2065) a me ʻelua mau hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana (RCP4.5 a me RCP8.5).
No ka nānā ʻana inā loaʻa ka mana like o ka emi ʻana o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i ke anuanu ma luna o nā wahi e pili ana i ko lākou hōʻiliʻili ʻana i kēia manawa, ua hana ʻia kahi hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o nā keʻena hau 270, e hoʻokaʻawale iā lākou ma ke ʻano o nā ʻāpana i hōʻiliʻili ʻia i ke ʻano o kēia manawa: hōʻiliʻili haʻahaʻa (< 60 mau ʻāpana, 34 mau kikowaena), hōʻiliʻili waena (ma waena o 60 a me 80 mau ʻāpana, 121 mau kikowaena), a me ka hōʻiliʻili kiʻekiʻe (ma luna o 80 mau ʻāpana, 115 mau kikowaena). Hōʻike 3 hōʻike i nā pahu pahu o nā ʻāpana i hōʻiliʻili ʻia i kēlā me kēia hiʻohiʻona no nā ʻano wahi ʻekolu. ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka hōʻiliʻili hau i ʻike ʻia e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia e like me kēlā me kēia hiʻohiʻona. Ma ke ʻano o ka ʻokoʻa o nā waiwai waena ma waena o nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana, me he mea lā e hōʻike ana nā ʻano wahi ʻekolu i ke ʻano like (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o nā pohō haʻahaʻa ma nā wahi hōʻiliʻili haʻahaʻa). Eia naʻe, ʻokoʻa loa ka laha ʻana o ka ʻikepili. Hōʻike nā wahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a me ke kiʻekiʻe i ka hoʻopuehu haʻahaʻa (me kekahi mau mea i waho ma ka hopena haʻahaʻa o ka puʻunaue) ma mua o nā wahi waena, e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻopuehu kiʻekiʻe akā ʻaʻohe o waho. Hōʻike ka nānā ʻana o kēia mau outliers no nā wahi hōʻiliʻili kiʻekiʻe o ke anuanu e pili ana ka outlier no nā hiʻohiʻona ʻehā e hiki mai ana me kahi wahi o loko Mediterranean (Játiva). No nā wahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e hōʻiliʻili ai i ke anuanu, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēlā me kēia hihia (me ka hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa) e pili ana i kahi wahi kai Mediterranean (Almería). ʻO nā mea i waho no ka hopena kiʻekiʻe o ka māhele ʻana i nā wahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e pili ana i nā wahi o loko o ke Kaiwaenahonua (ʻo ia hoʻi, Montesa, Callosa de Sarriá, a me Murcia) ʻoiai hiki ke lilo i mea kiʻi mai ka wānana ʻana i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke anuanu i ka wā e hiki mai ana ma mua o kēia manawa. hiʻohiʻona. Hiki ke kumu ia ma muli o ka ʻokoʻa ʻana o ke aniau ma waena o ka wahi maoli o nā keʻena lewa a me ko lākou wahi kokoke loa i ka mākia no nā wānana e hiki mai ana.
Hōʻike 3
MAKAHI 3. ʻO nā pahu pahu o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i ke anuanu ma nā hiʻohiʻona āpau no ka haʻahaʻa (<60 mau ʻāpana), waena (ma waena o 60 a me 80 mau ʻāpana), a me ke kiʻekiʻe (>80 mau ʻāpana) nā keʻena hōʻiliʻili hau, i kuhikuhi ʻia i ke ʻano o kēia manawa.
Hoʻoulu ʻana i ka wela
Ua helu ʻia ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ʻelua mau hiʻohiʻona (ʻo ia hoʻi, nā hiʻohiʻona Richardson a me Anderson) e like me ka hōʻiliʻili hau. Ua loaʻa pū kekahi pilina kiʻekiʻe ma waena o nā hopena o nā hiʻohiʻona ʻelua (R2 = 0.998, Ke Kahua 2). No laila, hōʻike ʻia nā hopena me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā hopena o ke kumu hoʻohālike Anderson. Hōʻike 4 hōʻike i nā hiʻohiʻona spatial o ka mean GDH i nā manawa like ʻole. ʻO nā hiʻohiʻona āpau e pili ana i ka GDH e like me ka hoʻopili ʻana me kā lākou mau hiʻohiʻona hōʻiliʻili hau (Hōʻike 2). ʻO nā wahi haʻahaʻa ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke anuanu i kēia manawa ka hōʻiliʻili wela kiʻekiʻe a me ka hope. E like me ka emi ʻana o ka hōʻiliʻili hau i nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana, piʻi like ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka wela ma kēlā me kēia wahi. No ka laʻana, ʻo ka coefficient correlation Pearson ma waena o ka hōʻiliʻili hau i nalowale a me ka hōʻiliʻili wela i loaʻa no nā hiʻohiʻona 2055_RCP8.5 he 0.68 (p-waiwai < 1e-15).
Hōʻike 4
MAKAHI 4. ʻO ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ka wela ma nā wahi hana pōhaku nui ma Sepania no ke kūlana o kēia manawa (ma kahi o 2000–2020), ʻelua mau manawa manawa (2025–2045 a me 2045–2065) a me ʻelua mau hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana (RCP4.5 a me RCP8.5)
E like me ka hihia hōʻiliʻili hau, ʻoi aku ka ikaika o nā hopena o ka piʻi ʻana o GDH i ka hanana 2055_RCP8.5 e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia. Nā Papa Kūkākūkā 5-8 hōʻike i ka hōʻiliʻili wela ma ka manawa i noʻonoʻo ʻia (1 Ianuali-8 ʻApelila) ma GDH no nā wahi a me nā kumu hoʻohālike i kēlā me kēia hiʻohiʻona i manaʻo ʻia. Hōʻike ʻia ka waiwai nui o nā mea hoʻopuka o nā kumu hoʻohālike he ʻumikumamākahi, a me ka wela i hōʻiliʻili ʻia no ka manawa 2000–2020 no nā kumu hoʻohālikelike.
Hiki i nā hanana hau hau a me ka wela ʻē
Hōʻike ʻia ka likelika o nā hanana hau e like me ka mea i wehewehe ʻia ma luna Hōʻike 5 ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā wiki 2-10 no nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa a me 2035_RCP4.5 a me 2055_RCP8.5 (ʻo ≥ 10%) wale nō. Ma ke kūlana o kēia manawa, ua hoʻopaʻa ʻia nā hanana nui o ka hau hau ma nā wahi o ke awāwa ʻo Ebro akā ʻo Extremadura ʻākau a me nā wahi o loko o ke Kaiwaenahonua. Ke emi nei ka nui o ka hau mai nā pule 2 a i ka 10 e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, akā aia kekahi mau wahi ma ke awāwa ʻo Ebro e hōʻike ana i ka nui o ka hau ma ka pule 10. Hōʻike 5 ʻo ia ka mea manaʻo maikaʻi loa (ʻo ia hoʻi, 2035_RCP4.5) a me ka pessimistic (ʻo ia hoʻi, 2055_RCP8.5), ma ke ʻano o ka piʻi ʻana o ka mahana. ʻO ka likelika o nā hanana hau e nalowale ana mai Extremadura a emi iho ma nā wahi āpau, ʻoiai nā wahi i hoʻemi ʻia o ke awāwa ʻo Ebro a me kekahi mau wahi kaʻawale i loko o ke Kaiwaenahonua e hōʻike ana i nā probabilities ma luna o 10% a hiki i ka pule 10. E like me ke kūlana o kēia manawa, e emi ana ka nui o ka hau. pule 2 a hiki i ka 10. He mea kupanaha, 2035_RCP4.5 a me 2055_RCP8.5 mau hi'ohi'ona e hō'ike ana i nā ki'i like 'ole e pili ana i nā hanana o nā hanana hau, e hō'ike ana i ke awāwa o Ebro a me kekahi mau wahi o loko o ke Kaiwaenahonua e loa'a i nā hanana hau i nā hi'ohi'ona a pau.
Hōʻike 5
MAKAHI 5. Hiki i nā hanana hau ma nā wahi hana pōhaku nui ma Sepania no nā pule 2 a 10 no kēia manawa, 2035_RCP4.5 a me 2055_RCP8.5 mau hiʻohiʻona.
Kūkākūkā a me ka hopena
Ua ho'āʻo kēia haʻawina e hoʻohālikelike i nā hua pōhaku nui e hana ana i nā wahi o Sepania me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻikepili agroclimatic mōʻaukala (ʻoi aku ka wela) mai 270 mau kikowaena o ka wā i hoʻolaha ʻia ma ia mau wahi a hoʻohālikelike i nā hopena me nā wānana e hiki mai ana i ʻelua manawa a me nā hiʻohiʻona RCP. Ua koho ʻia nā wahi aʻo ma muli o ka hoʻoholo ʻana i kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana e pili ana i ka mahi ʻana i nā hua pōhaku (ʻo ia hoʻi, ka peach, apricot, plum, a me nā cherry momona) e lawe nui ʻia i loko o nā wahi hana o kēia manawa, kahi e ʻike ai a ʻenehana no ka ulu ʻana i kēia mau mea kanu i hoʻokomo ikaika ʻia. No laila, ʻaʻole pili kēia haʻawina i nā wahi ʻē aʻe e hiki mai ana no ka mahi ʻai hua pōhaku.
ʻO nā mea hoʻololi nui i helu ʻia, ʻo ia hoʻi, ke anuanu a me ka hōʻiliʻili wela, e hōʻike ana he ʻokoʻa loa nā wahi i manaʻo ʻia mai ka ʻike agroclimatic a he hopena koʻikoʻi ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau, ʻoi aku hoʻi i nā wahi mehana a i ka wā waena. ʻO nā hiʻohiʻona i hoʻohana ʻia no ka helu ʻana i kekahi o lākou (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻo Utah a me Dynamic no ke anuanu a me Richardson a me Anderson no ka hōʻiliʻili wela) hōʻike i nā pilina kiʻekiʻe loa e like me ka mea i ʻike mua ʻia e. ʻO Ruiz et al. (2007, 2018).
Kuhi ʻia nā hōʻemi nui o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana ma nā wahi āpau, e ʻae me nā haʻawina mua ma nā wahi Mediterranean (Benmoussa et al., 2018, 2020; Rodríguez et al., 2019; Delgado et al., 2021; ʻO Fraga lāua ʻo Santos, 2021). ʻO ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu e like me nā waiwai piha ma nā wahi a pau i aʻo ʻia, akā ʻo nā mea mehana loa (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻo ka ʻāina Mediterranean a me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir) hiki ke hoʻopilikia nui ʻia ma ke ʻano o ke kūpono o ka kanu ʻana i nā huaʻai pōhaku no ka mea ʻo ko lākou kūlana i kēia manawa he palena ia no. he nui na cultivars. Ma nā wahi anu e like me ke awāwa ʻo Ebro a me Extremadura, ʻaʻole e lilo ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu i mea keakea no ka hoʻomau ʻana i ka mahiʻai, ʻoiai ma kekahi mau wahi anu ma Extremadura a me ke Kaiwaenahonua, ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka emi ʻana o ke anuanu ma mua o nā wahi anu. E hoʻomaopopo ʻia, e like me Hōʻike 3, ʻike ʻia ka hāʻule koke ʻana o ke anuanu ma waena o ke kūlana o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana. ʻO ka hoʻonā o ka mānoanoa i hoʻohana ʻia, ʻoiai inā maikaʻi (∼5 km) hiki ke kumu o kēia hopena. ʻO nā kumu kumu like ʻole ʻē aʻe e alakaʻi ai i nā ʻokoʻa nui ma waena o nā mea i manaʻo ʻia a me nā waiwai maoli, ʻo ia ke koena o nā kumu hoʻohālike GCM ʻaʻole i hōʻemi ʻia i ka wā o ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana, a i ʻole ke hoʻohālikelike nei mākou i nā helu i hana ʻia me nā mahana maoli o kēlā me kēia hola (ʻo ia hoʻi, i kēia manawa. scenario) a me nā helu ʻana i hana ʻia me nā pihi wela kūpono i loaʻa mai i ka kiʻekiʻe o kēlā me kēia lā a me nā mahana liʻiliʻi (Linvill, 1990) no nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana. Ua ʻike pū ʻia nā hāʻule like like i ka wā e hiki mai ana e Rodríguez et al., nāna i wānana i ka emi ʻana a hiki i 30 mau ʻāpana chilling no ka manawa 2021–2050 ma kekahi mau wahi ma Sepania (Rodríguez et al., 2019), e ʻae like me kā mākou hopena. ʻO Benmoussa et al. (2020), ʻO Delgado et al. (2021), a ʻO Fraga lāua ʻo Santos (2021) Ua hōʻike pū ʻia ka hāʻule koke ʻana ma waena o nā hiʻohiʻona mōʻaukala a me ka wā e hiki mai ana ma Tunisia, Pokukala, a me Asturias (North Spain). E like me kā mākou hihia, ua hōʻike pū kēia mau haʻawina ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia nā ʻokoʻa koʻikoʻi no ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i ke anuanu i ka wā e hiki mai ana me ka nānā ʻole ʻana o ka RCP. ʻAʻole like me ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana, e piʻi aʻe ka wela ma nā hiʻohiʻona āpau (ʻoi loa ma 2055_RCP8.5 e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia), a ua ʻokoʻa kona hoʻololi ʻana i kēia o ka hōʻiliʻili hau. Ua nānā pū ʻia kēia e ʻO Fraga lāua ʻo Santos (2021) no Pokukala.
Ua helu pū ʻia nā hanana o ka hau a me nā hanana wela maʻamau i nā pule kahi e hiki ai ke hoʻololi nui i ka hua a me ka hana ʻana (e laʻa, ka hau hope a i ʻole nā hanana wela ma mua o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka endodormancy). No ka hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā hanana hau ma nā wahi anu, e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia. ʻO nā hanana wela maʻamau i nā pule koʻikoʻi i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma ka ʻāina Mediterranean i nā makahiki i hala aku nei akā me ka haʻahaʻa loa. Hōʻike ka manaʻo o ka wā e hiki mai ana no kēia mau hoʻololi i nā hanana hau i nā pule kahi e hoʻopili ʻia ai ka hua pōhaku (ʻO Miranda et al., 2005; ʻO Julian et al., 2007) e emi ana i ka wā e piʻi ai ke kenekulia a emi pinepine no RCP8.5, e like me nā haʻawina mua (Leolini et al., 2018). Eia nō naʻe, e mau ana kekahi mau wahi o ke awāwa ʻo Ebro a me nā wahi kūloko o ke Kaiwaenahonua i ka nui o nā hanana hau i loko o nā pule incumbent ʻoiai i ke ʻano mehana loa (ie, 2055_RCP8.5, Hōʻike 5). ʻO ka wehewehe ʻana o kahi hanana hau ma ke ʻano o ka mahana a me ka manawa hoʻolaha e pili pono ana i ka pae phenological o ka incumbent cultivar (ʻO Miranda et al., 2005). Ma muli o ka nui o nā mea kanu hua pōhaku, mai ka haʻahaʻa loa a hiki i ka CR kiʻekiʻe loa, a me ka helu o nā wahi i kālailai ʻia, mai ke anu a i ka mahana, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokumu ʻia i nā wehewehe ʻana o nā hanana cultivar/wahi hau i kēia haʻawina ma muli o ka nui o ka nui. ʻike pili. Hana ʻia kēia mau ʻano haʻawina me ka hoʻohana ʻana i kekahi mau wahi a/a i ʻole nā mea kanu, e like me ka mea i hana ʻia e Lorite et al. (2020) no nā ʻalemona ma Sepania, Fernandez et al. (2020) ma Chile, nāna i helu i nā mahana liʻiliʻi ma lalo o 0°C i ka wā mohala o nā ʻano kumu lāʻau deciduous maikaʻi loa i mahi ʻia ma kēlā me kēia o nā wahi ʻeiwa i manaʻo ʻia, a i ʻole Parker et al. (2021) nāna i noʻonoʻo i nā ʻano mahana like ʻole a me nā pae phenological no ʻekolu mau ʻano (ʻo ia hoʻi, nā ʻalemona, nā avocados, a me nā ʻalani) akā ua hana pū kekahi i kahi ʻano maʻamau o ka wahi ma ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ʻekolu wela (0, -2, a me +2°C) a me ka manawa hoʻolaha. ʻO kā mākou koho ʻana o −1°C a ma kahi o ʻekolu mau hola ʻokoʻa ka manaʻo e ʻike i ke ʻano o ka ulu ʻana o nā hanana hau ma mua o ka hoʻopili ʻana i ka pōʻino kikoʻī i nā cultivars, e manaʻo ʻia he haʻawina ʻokoʻa. Ua ʻae ʻia kēia wehewehe ʻana ma hope o ka loaʻa ʻana o nā manaʻo o ka poʻe loea. Ma muli o ka nui o nā cultivars e pili ana i ka CR a me HR a me ka ʻokoʻa o nā ʻano wela i nā wahi i noʻonoʻo ʻia i loko o kēia haʻawina, ua koho mākou i kēlā mau pule (mai ka 2 a hiki i ka 10) kahi e hiki ai ke hui pū ʻia (a i ʻole ka hapa nui) o ka cultivar/wahi. hiki ke pilikia i ka hau e like me ko lākou pae phenological. No ka hoʻoholo ʻana, pono nā mea hana e koho i ka palapala ʻāina i kūpono i ko lākou kūlana kūikawā (ʻo ia hoʻi, cultivar/wahi) e hoʻoholo ai i ka hoʻoholo maikaʻi loa. Ma keʻano laulā, pili nā wahi mehana a/a i ʻole nā mea kanu pua mua i nā pule i hala ma ka pae i noʻonoʻo ʻia, akā ʻo nā wahi anu a/a i ʻole nā mea kanu pua lohi e pili ana i nā pule ma hope o ka pae i manaʻo ʻia. ʻO nā hanana wela maʻamau i ka hoʻoilo e hiki ke hoʻoikaika i ka hoʻokuʻu mua ʻana o ka endodormancy, e hoʻopilikia maikaʻi ʻole i ka hana (Viti a me Monteleone, 1995; ʻO Rodrigo lāua ʻo Herrero, 2002; Ladwig et al., 2019), e hoʻonui nui ʻia ma ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir, nā wahi kahakai Mediterranean, a ma Extremadura a me kekahi mau wahi o ke awāwa ʻo Ebro i ka waena a i ʻole ka hopena o Pepeluali (Hōʻike 6). ʻAʻole ʻōlelo pinepine ʻia ka helu ʻana o kēia metric ma ka palapala akā hiki ke hoʻonāukiuki i nā pilikia hana nui ma nā wahi mahana e like me ka ʻike ʻia i nā makahiki i hala. Eia hou, ʻo ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana i ka 25°C a i ʻole ma luna o ʻekolu mau hola e wehewehe ai i kēlā hanana i hoʻoikaika ʻia e nā manaʻo o ka poʻe loea. E like me nā probabilities o nā hanana hau, ua koho mākou i kēlā mau pule (mai ka 49 a hiki i ka 8) kahi e hiki ai i nā hui āpau (a i ʻole ka hapa nui) ke hoʻopili ʻia e kēia mau hanana e like me ko lākou pae phenological. Ma keʻano laulā, pili nā wahi mehana a/a i ʻole nā mea kanu pua mua i nā pule i hala ma ka pae i noʻonoʻo ʻia, akā ʻo nā wahi anu a/a i ʻole nā mea kanu pua lohi e pili ana i nā pule ma hope o ka pae i manaʻo ʻia.
Hāʻawi nā anana agroclimatic i helu ʻia ma kēia noiʻi ʻana i ka ʻike waiwai no nā mea hana e koho i nā mea kanu kūpono i kēlā me kēia wahi hana mai kahi ʻano kūpono. Loaʻa i kēlā me kēia cultivar kāna mau CR e wāwahi i ka endodormancy (Campoy et al., 2011b; Fadón et al., 2020b). ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka hōʻiliʻili hau e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia i nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana ke kumu e hoʻokō ʻole ai nā mahiʻai ulu i kēia manawa i kā lākou CR ma kekahi mau wahi, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā wahi o ke Kaiwaenahonua a me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir, ua mahana. E pili ana kēia i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka endodormancy piha ʻole e pili ana i nā kumulāʻau hua ma nā ʻano nui ʻekolu, ʻo ia hoʻi, ka hāʻule ʻana o ka pua (a pēlā ka pua maikaʻi ʻole), lohi i ka pua ʻana a me ka ʻōpuʻu ʻana, a me ka like ʻole o nā kaʻina hana ʻelua, e alakaʻi i nā pilikia huahua (Legave et al., 1983; Erez, 2000; ʻO Atkinson et al., 2013). Hiki i kēia mau mea a pau ke hana i nā poho waiwai nui i nā mea hana. Ma kēia pōʻaiapili, he mea koʻikoʻi ka ʻike e pili ana i ka CR no nā mea kanu like ʻole ʻoiai ʻaʻole liʻiliʻi ka ʻike i loaʻa i kēia manawa i nā kumulāʻau hua pōhaku (Fadón et al., 2020b), me ka peach (Maulión et al., 2014), apricot (ʻO Ruiz et al., 2007), plum (ʻO Ruiz et al., 2018), a me ka cherry momona (Alburquerque et al., 2008).
Ma nā wahi mahana e like me ke Kaiwaenahonua a me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir, kahi i hōʻiliʻili ʻia ma lalo o 60 mau ʻāpana i ke kūlana o kēia manawa, ulu ʻia nā mea kanu mua me CR ma waena o 30 a me 60 mau ʻāpana. Hiki ke pilikia ka hoʻokō CR no kēia mau mea kanu i nā hiʻohiʻona i nānā ʻia e hiki mai ana (Hōʻike 2). No ka hōʻoia ʻana i ke kūpono kūpono o nā ʻano ʻano like ʻole i kēia mau wahi, pono paha kahi hoʻoneʻe ʻana, a pono e neʻe ʻia kekahi o nā mea kanu i nā wahi pani (nā ʻāpana kūloko ma ka ʻāina Mediterranean a i ʻole Extremadura i ka hihia o ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir) kahi e hoʻokō ʻia ai ka CR a hiki i nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana, a ke manaʻo ʻia nei e emi nā pilikia hau. Ma kēia pōʻaiapili, ʻo ka hoʻokomo ʻana a i ʻole ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mea kanu me ka CR haʻahaʻa loa e lilo i mea koʻikoʻi e noʻonoʻo ʻia i nā papahana hoʻohua o nā ʻano ʻano incumbent/cultivars, ʻoi aku ka kūpono no nā wahi mahana kahi e pilikia ai ka hoʻololi ʻana o nā mea kanu o kēia wā i ka wā e hiki mai ana. nā hiʻohiʻona. A i ʻole, ʻaʻole hiki i kēia mau wahi ke mālama i kā lākou mau hana huahua a me ka hoʻokele waiwai e pili ana i ka hana hua pōhaku. Ma waho aʻe o kēia, hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia nā hana agronomic like ʻole e hōʻemi i ka emi ʻana o ka hōʻiliʻili hau ma kēia mau wahi ma ka liʻiliʻi loa. ʻO ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā bio-stimulants e wāwahi i ka endodormancy ma mua o ka hoʻokō ʻana i ka CR a i ʻole ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā ʻupena pale i nā wā dormancy like ʻole i wehewehe ʻia i nā wahi mahana no ka hana hua pōhaku (ʻO Gilreath lāua ʻo Buchanan, 1981; Erez, 1987; Costa et al., 2004; Campoy et al., 2010; Petri et al., 2014), ʻoiai pono e hoʻokō ʻia nā noiʻi hou aʻe i mea e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēia mau ʻenehana a hoʻolaha i kā lākou hoʻohana ʻōnaehana. I ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana, ma nā wahi hana anuanu e like me ke awāwa ʻo Ebro, ʻĀkau Extremadura, a me kekahi mau wahi o loko o ka ʻāina Mediterranean, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o nā hanana hau i manaʻo ʻia, hiki ke ʻae i nā cultivars mua ma mua o nā mea i kēia manawa, e hoʻonui i ka nui o nā mea kanu ola a, no laila, ʻo ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka mākeke me nā hopena waiwai maikaʻi no ka wahi. Ma ka holoʻokoʻa, ma nā wahi hana āpau, he mea koʻikoʻi e noʻonoʻo i nā cultivars ulu a me ka nānā ʻana aia ma ka lihi o kā lākou hoʻokō CR e hoʻololi a hoʻoneʻe paha iā lākou a i ʻole e hoʻolauna i nā hana hoʻokele i hōʻike ʻia ma luna nei e hōʻoia i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka loli hou. nā hiʻohiʻona.
E pili ana i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ka wela, wānana nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana i ka piʻi ʻana o kēia ʻano hoʻololi ma nā wahi āpau i manaʻo ʻia (Hōʻike 4). Ma nā wahi mahana a me waena, ʻaʻole i like ka hoʻoholo ʻana o kēia ʻano hoʻololi e like me ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke anuanu akā hiki ke loaʻa i kahi hopena kūpono i ka phenology, e hana ana i kahi holomua i nā lā pua a pēlā e hoʻonui ai i ka pōʻino o ka hau (Mosedale et al., 2015; Unterberger et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2019). Ma ke ʻano he ʻokoʻa, e komo pū kēia ulu pua i ka mua o ka ulu ʻana (ʻO Peñuelas lāua ʻo Filella, 2001; Campoy et al., 2011b), pono e noʻonoʻo ʻia e nā mea hana e kau i kā lākou huahana ma nā mākeke. I ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana, ma nā wahi anu, ʻo ka nele o ka hōʻiliʻili wela i ke kūlana o kēia manawa hiki ke hōʻeha i ka hoʻomohala phenological a me ka ulu ʻana o ka hua (Fadon et al., 2020a). E makemake ʻia kēia mau wahi anu i kēia manawa e ka piʻi ʻana o ka wela i wānana ʻia no nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana. E like me ka mea i hoikeia ma Hōʻike 6, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā hanana wela maʻamau i nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana i nā lā kahi i hoʻokuʻu ʻole ai nā kumu hua i ka endodormancy, ʻoi aku hoʻi i nā wahi mahana e like me ke awāwa ʻo Guadalquivir a me nā wahi Mediterranean. Hiki i kēia mau hanana ke loaʻa ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole ke uhi ʻia ka CR (ma kahi o 60-70%), e hoʻoulu ai i kahi hoʻokuʻu dormancy ʻaʻole e pili ana i nā pilikia mea kanu a me ka pua, me ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole i ka hoʻonohonoho hua a me nā hua.ʻO Rodrigo lāua ʻo Herrero, 2002; Campoy et al., 2011a).
I kekahi hihia, ʻaʻohe hopena maʻamau o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke ʻano anuanu a me ka wela i nā mea kanu āpau a me ko lākou mau wahi no ka mea hiki ke loaʻa kekahi hopena uku e pili ana i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o ke koena a me ka wela e pili ana i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o ka endodormancy a i ʻole ka wānana lā pua (Pope et al., 2014). Ma waho aʻe o kēia, ʻo ke ʻano agroclimatic o nā wahi ma kahi ākea kūloko paha e koi i kahi calibration o ka ʻikepili ma muli o ka heterogeneity spatial (Lorite et al., 2020) e hana i nā hoʻoholo maikaʻi loa e pili ana i nā koho cultivar maikaʻi loa. ʻAʻole hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia nā hopena i hōʻike ʻia ma kēia haʻawina ʻaʻole wale no ka hoʻohua ʻana i ka hua pōhaku akā no nā hua ʻokoʻa ʻē aʻe me ke koʻikoʻi nui ma nā wahi incumbent, e laʻa me nā kumu waina ma La Rioja (Ebro Valley) a i ʻole. Hiki i kēia mau hopena ke kumu o nā ʻōnaehana kākoʻo hoʻoholo e kōkua i nā mea hana i ka hoʻoholo ʻana i nā hoʻoholo hoʻolālā maikaʻi loa (e laʻa, ke koho ʻana i nā mahiʻai, ka neʻe ʻana, a me ka hoʻokō ʻana i nā hana hoʻokele mitigation) i ka manawa waena a me ka lōʻihi.
ʻEmentlelo Loaʻa Loaʻa ʻIkepili
ʻO nā haʻawina kumu i hōʻike ʻia i loko o ke aʻo ʻana i loko o ka ʻatikala /Nā mea hou, hiki ke kuhikuhi hou aku i na mea kakau.
Nā mea kōkua i kākau
Na MC, JG-B, JG, a me DR i hāpai a hoʻolālā i ka haʻawina. Hāʻawi ʻo MC i ka ʻikepili agroclimatic no ke ʻano o kēia manawa. Ua hana ʻo JAE i nā helu no nā hiʻohiʻona e hiki mai ana. Ua kākau ʻo JAE a me DR i ka hapa nui o ka palapala. Hāʻawi ʻo JE i ka ʻike e pili ana i nā ʻano agronomic ʻenehana. Ua hoʻokele ʻo JG i ka papahana hana hou i kākoʻo i kēia noiʻi. Ua hoʻoponopono hou nā mea kākau a pau i ka palapala a ua ʻae i ka mana i waiho ʻia.
hoʻolako 'ia o
Ua hāʻawi ʻia ke kākoʻo kālā e ka Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Food ma o ka Innovation Project "Adaptation of stone fruit sector to climate change" (REF: MAPA-PNDR 20190020007385) a me PRIMA, he papahana i kākoʻo ʻia ma lalo o H2020, ka European Union's Framework papahana no ka noiʻi a me ka hana hou ("AdaMedOr" papahana; hāʻawi helu PCI2020-112113 o ka Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation).
Ka pilikia o ka lokomaika'i
Ua haʻi aku nā mea kākau i ka hanaʻana o ka noiʻiʻana ma ka nele o nāʻoihana pāʻoihana aʻoihana kālā paha i hiki ke manaʻoʻia he hopena kūpono e pili ana.
Ka mea hoʻopuka a ka mea kākau
ʻO nā koi a pau i hōʻike ʻia ma kēia ʻatikala, ʻo ia wale nō nā mea kākau a ʻaʻole ia e hōʻike i ko lākou mau hui pili, a i ʻole nā mea hoʻopuka, nā mea hoʻoponopono a me nā loiloi. ʻO kēlā me kēia huahana i loiloi ʻia ma kēia ʻatikala, a i ʻole koi i hana ʻia e kāna mea hana, ʻaʻole i hōʻoia ʻia a ʻae ʻia e ka mea hoʻopuka.
mau hoomaikai ana
Mahalo mākou i nā lālā a pau o ka Spanish Operative Group "Adaptation of stone fruit sector to climate change" (FECOAM, FECOAV, ANECOOP, Frutaria, Basol Fruits, Fundación Universidad-Empresa de la Región de Murcia, Fundación Cajamar) no kā lākou hāʻawi waiwai i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka papahana. Mahalo mākou iā AEMET no ka ʻikepili i loaʻa ma kāna ʻaoʻao pūnaewele (http://www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat/datos_diarios).
Nā mea hou
Hiki ke loaʻa nā mea kōkua hou no kēiaʻatikala ma ka pūnaewele ma: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.842628/full#supplementary-material
Helu Kii 1 | ʻO ka hoʻoponopono ʻana ma waena o nā ʻāpana i hōʻiliʻili ʻia a me nā ʻāpana anuanu no ka hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa ma nā kikowaena aniau a pau.
Helu Kii 2 | ʻO ka pilina ma waena o GDH i hōʻiliʻili ʻia no nā hiʻohiʻona Anderson a me Richardson no ke ʻano hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa ma nā kikowaena aniau a pau.
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Keywords: ʻO Prunus, hua pōhaku, hoʻololi ʻana, hōʻiliʻili hau, phenology, pilikia hau, koho ʻano like ʻole, nā ana agroclimatic
Hōʻike: ʻO Egea JA, Caro M, García-Brunton J, Gambín J, Egea J a me Ruiz D (2022) Agroclimatic Metrics no nā ʻāpana hua hua pōhaku nui ma Sepania i nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana. Mamua. Kanu mea kanu ʻo sci. 13:842628. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.842628
Loaʻaʻia: 23 Kekemapa 2021; Uaʻaeʻia: 02 Mei 2022;
Kuhiʻia: 08 Iune 2022.
Hoʻoponoponoʻia e:Hisayo Yamane, Ke Kulanui ʻo Kyoto, Iapana
Nānā ':Liang Guo, Ke Kulanui A&F Komohana Akau, Kina
Kirti Rajagopalan, Ke Kulanui o Wakinekona, ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa
Kuleana kope © 2022 Egea, Caro, García-Brunton, Gambín, Egea a me Ruiz. He ʻatikala hāmama kēia i hoʻolaha ʻia ma lalo o nā ʻōlelo o ka Lulā Lahui Creative Commons (CC BY). Uaʻaeʻia ka hoʻohana, ka hāʻawiʻana a iʻole kopeʻiaʻana ma nā papa kūkā'ē aʻe, ke hoʻolakoʻia nā mea kākau a me ka mea nona ke kuleana kope a ua kākauʻia ka puke pai ma kēia puke pai, e like me ka hana hoʻonaʻauao kūpono. ʻAʻole hoʻohanaʻia, hoʻolaha a hoʻoponopono paha iʻole e mālama i kēia mau hua'ōlelo.
* Pono: Jose A. Egea, jaegea@cebas.csic.es; David Ruiz, druiz@cebas.csic.es